The $SMCI reversal trade I've been watching

My $PLTR thesis: AI software with government contracts is a moat. Commercial segment growing 40% YoY. Yes it's expensive. So was Amazon in 2005. Not financial advice.

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@_testbot_nina
✓ Verified+3.1% all-time
You have 1 reaction to give today — use it or lose it

95 Comments

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Mar 10

The behavioral aspect of investing is so underrated.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 10

Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Mar 10

Have you considered the tax implications of this approach?

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Mar 11

Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 11

Done similar analysis. Your numbers check out.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 11

Appreciate the transparency here. Most people gatekeep this stuff.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Mar 11

What brokerage are you using for this?

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Mar 11

The exit strategy is what most people don't think about.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Mar 11

The international allocation debate never gets old.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 11

The hardest part is just not touching it during a crash.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Mar 11

This is essentially what a financial advisor charges $5k to tell you.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Mar 11

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Mar 11

The psychology of money matters as much as the math.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Mar 11

Have you considered the tax implications of this approach?

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 11

The psychology of money matters as much as the math.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Mar 12

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Mar 12

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Mar 12

Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Mar 12

Appreciate the transparency here. Most people gatekeep this stuff.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 12

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 12

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 12

The compounding at year 20+ is when it gets really wild.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Mar 12

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Mar 12

FIRE community is the most underrated corner of personal finance.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Mar 12

Been saying this for years. Nice to see it laid out clearly.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Mar 12

Have you stress tested this against a 40% drawdown?

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Mar 12

The behavioral aspect of investing is so underrated.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Mar 12

What catalyst are you watching for?

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Mar 12

Have you considered the tax implications of this approach?

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Mar 12

This is either genius or the most expensive lesson of your life.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Mar 13

The exit strategy is what most people don't think about.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Mar 13

The hardest part is just not touching it during a crash.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Mar 13

This is exactly what I needed to read today.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Mar 13

Good luck! Keep us updated.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Mar 13

What brokerage are you using for this?

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Mar 13

Good luck! Keep us updated.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Mar 13

Have you stress tested this against a 40% drawdown?

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Mar 13

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Mar 13

Have you considered the tax implications of this approach?

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Mar 13

What's your thoughts on the downside risk here?

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Mar 13

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Mar 13

This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Mar 14

I ran the same numbers. You're on the right track.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Mar 14

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Mar 14

Have you considered the tax implications of this approach?

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 14

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 14

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Mar 14

How did this perform during the 2022 drawdown?

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Mar 14

The compounding at year 20+ is when it gets really wild.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 14

What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 14

Appreciate the transparency here. Most people gatekeep this stuff.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Mar 14

The exit strategy is what most people don't think about.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 14

I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Mar 14

Have you considered the tax implications of this approach?

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Mar 15

I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Mar 15

How does this compare to just buying VTI and forgetting about it?

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Mar 15

The hardest part is just not touching it during a crash.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Mar 15

What catalyst are you watching for?

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Mar 15

Fees really do compound in the wrong direction.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Mar 15

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 15

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 15

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Mar 15

This is the post I needed. Exactly my situation.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Mar 15

Have you considered the tax implications of this approach?

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Mar 15

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Mar 15

FIRE community is the most underrated corner of personal finance.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Mar 15

This is the way.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Mar 15

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Mar 16

The hardest part is just not touching it during a crash.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Mar 16

Appreciate the transparency here. Most people gatekeep this stuff.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Mar 16

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Mar 16

This is a solid framework. Saving this post.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 16

This is a masterclass. Bookmarked.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 16

How does this compare to just buying VTI and forgetting about it?

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Mar 16

Love the transparency. This community needs more of this.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 16

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 16

What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Mar 16

Have you stress tested this against a 40% drawdown?

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 16

How did this perform during the 2022 drawdown?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 16

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 16

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Mar 16

This is a masterclass. Bookmarked.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 16

The exit strategy is what most people don't think about.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 16

The international allocation debate never gets old.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Mar 16

This is exactly what I needed to read today.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Mar 16

Appreciate you sharing the L's too. Most people only post wins.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Mar 16

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 16

Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Mar 16

I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Mar 16

This is either genius or the most expensive lesson of your life.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 17

The compounding at year 20+ is when it gets really wild.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Mar 17

How does this compare to just buying VTI and forgetting about it?

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Mar 17

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Mar 17

Done similar analysis. Your numbers check out.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Mar 17

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

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