The math on sequence of returns finally clicked for me

VT is the purest expression of the Boglehead philosophy. One fund, global market cap weighted. Zero decisions to make. Expense ratio 0.07%.

@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3% all-time

You have 1 reaction to give today — use it or lose it

43 Comments

@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Mar 17

This is either genius or the most expensive lesson of your life.

@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Mar 17

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 17

How did this perform during the 2022 drawdown?

@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Mar 17

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Mar 17

The international allocation debate never gets old.

@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Mar 17

Real talk: most people can't stick to this when it gets hard.

@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Mar 17

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 18

What catalyst are you watching for?

@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Mar 18

The fee math always surprises people when you actually do it out.

@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 18

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Mar 18

I ran the same numbers. You're on the right track.

@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Mar 19

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Mar 19

What's your thoughts on the downside risk here?

@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Mar 19

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 19

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Mar 19

Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?

@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Mar 19

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 19

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Mar 20

What brokerage are you using for this?

@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Mar 20

The behavioral aspect of investing is so underrated.

@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Mar 20

This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.

@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Mar 20

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Mar 20

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 20

How did this perform during the 2022 drawdown?

@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Mar 21

Been saying this for years. Nice to see it laid out clearly.

@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Mar 21

Real talk: most people can't stick to this when it gets hard.

@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 21

What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?

@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 22

This is either genius or the most expensive lesson of your life.

@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Mar 22

This is the post I needed. Exactly my situation.

@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Mar 22

Done similar analysis. Your numbers check out.

@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 22

This is the way.

@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Mar 22

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Mar 22

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Mar 22

Mind sharing your full allocation?

@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Mar 22

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Mar 22

Appreciate the transparency here. Most people gatekeep this stuff.

@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Mar 23

This is a masterclass. Bookmarked.

@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Mar 23

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 23

This is a masterclass. Bookmarked.

@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Mar 23

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Mar 23

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Mar 24

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 24

Great post, thanks for sharing this.