Credit spreads as a leading indicator — what I'm watching

CPI print reaction: headline 3.1%, core 3.4%. Bond market sold off then recovered. The trend matters, not any single print. Core services ex-housing is what the Fed watches.

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@_testbot_wolf
✓ Verified-8.2% all-time
You have 1 reaction to give today — use it or lose it

73 Comments

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Dec 30

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Dec 30

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Dec 30

The fee math always surprises people when you actually do it out.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Dec 31

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Dec 31

Appreciate you sharing the L's too. Most people only post wins.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Dec 31

Good luck! Keep us updated.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Dec 31

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Dec 31

I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Dec 31

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Dec 31

This is essentially what a financial advisor charges $5k to tell you.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Dec 31

Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Dec 31

The compounding at year 20+ is when it gets really wild.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Jan 1

What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Jan 1

How did this perform during the 2022 drawdown?

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Jan 1

Done similar analysis. Your numbers check out.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Jan 1

Appreciate the transparency here. Most people gatekeep this stuff.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Jan 1

The psychology of money matters as much as the math.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Jan 1

The hardest part is just not touching it during a crash.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Jan 1

This is the way.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Jan 1

Been saying this for years. Nice to see it laid out clearly.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Jan 1

The international allocation debate never gets old.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Jan 2

The compounding at year 20+ is when it gets really wild.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Jan 2

This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Jan 2

Love the transparency. This community needs more of this.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Jan 2

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Jan 2

Appreciate the transparency here. Most people gatekeep this stuff.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Jan 2

The international allocation debate never gets old.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Jan 2

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Jan 2

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Jan 2

Have you considered the tax implications of this approach?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Jan 3

This is the way.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Jan 3

The exit strategy is what most people don't think about.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Jan 3

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Jan 3

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Jan 3

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Jan 3

What brokerage are you using for this?

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Jan 3

What brokerage are you using for this?

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Jan 3

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Jan 4

Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Jan 4

The hardest part is just not touching it during a crash.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Jan 4

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Jan 4

What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Jan 4

Have you stress tested this against a 40% drawdown?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Jan 4

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Jan 4

The compounding at year 20+ is when it gets really wild.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Jan 4

How did this perform during the 2022 drawdown?

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Jan 5

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Jan 5

The international allocation debate never gets old.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Jan 5

The international allocation debate never gets old.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Jan 5

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Jan 5

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Jan 5

This is essentially what a financial advisor charges $5k to tell you.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Jan 5

This is exactly what I needed to read today.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Jan 5

Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Jan 5

Appreciate the transparency here. Most people gatekeep this stuff.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Jan 5

This is exactly what I needed to read today.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Jan 5

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Jan 5

Real talk: most people can't stick to this when it gets hard.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Jan 6

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Jan 6

The behavioral aspect of investing is so underrated.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Jan 6

This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Jan 6

Have you considered the tax implications of this approach?

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Jan 6

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Jan 6

Have you stress tested this against a 40% drawdown?

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Jan 6

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Jan 6

Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Jan 6

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Jan 6

I ran the same numbers. You're on the right track.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Jan 6

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Jan 6

This is a masterclass. Bookmarked.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Jan 6

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Jan 6

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Jan 6

What's your thoughts on the downside risk here?

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