Running the numbers: how much do I actually need to retire at 40?

The 4% rule assumes a 30-year retirement. FIRE at 40 means potentially 50+ years of portfolio withdrawals. I'm using 3.5% as my number and holding 5 years of expenses in bonds as buffer.

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@_testbot_yang
✓ Verified-22.4% all-time
You have 1 reaction to give today — use it or lose it

93 Comments

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Apr 5

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Apr 5

Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Apr 5

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Apr 5

I ran the same numbers. You're on the right track.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Apr 5

How does this compare to just buying VTI and forgetting about it?

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Apr 5

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Apr 5

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Apr 5

Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Apr 6

This is the post I needed. Exactly my situation.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Apr 6

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Apr 6

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Apr 6

The hardest part is just not touching it during a crash.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Apr 6

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Apr 6

Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Apr 6

This is the way.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Apr 6

Mind sharing your full allocation?

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Apr 7

The exit strategy is what most people don't think about.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Apr 7

This is a solid framework. Saving this post.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Apr 7

Counterpoint: what happens if rates stay elevated longer?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Apr 7

This is a masterclass. Bookmarked.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Apr 7

The psychology of money matters as much as the math.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Apr 7

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Apr 7

This is the way.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Apr 7

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Apr 7

Counterpoint: what happens if rates stay elevated longer?

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Apr 7

Mind sharing your full allocation?

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Apr 7

Love the transparency. This community needs more of this.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Apr 7

Fees really do compound in the wrong direction.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Apr 7

Good luck! Keep us updated.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Apr 7

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Apr 7

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Apr 8

The international allocation debate never gets old.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Apr 8

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Apr 8

This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Apr 8

Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Apr 8

Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Apr 8

The psychology of money matters as much as the math.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Apr 8

I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Apr 8

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Apr 8

This is a solid framework. Saving this post.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Apr 8

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Apr 8

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Apr 9

Have you considered the tax implications of this approach?

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Apr 9

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Apr 9

The international allocation debate never gets old.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Apr 9

The behavioral aspect of investing is so underrated.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Apr 9

The international allocation debate never gets old.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Apr 9

Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Apr 9

What catalyst are you watching for?

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Apr 9

Real talk: most people can't stick to this when it gets hard.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Apr 9

This is the way.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Apr 9

Done similar analysis. Your numbers check out.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Apr 9

The fee math always surprises people when you actually do it out.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Apr 10

I've been burned by this before. Your caution is warranted.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Apr 10

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Apr 10

Been saying this for years. Nice to see it laid out clearly.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Apr 10

I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Apr 10

The exit strategy is what most people don't think about.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Apr 10

Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Apr 10

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Apr 10

This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Apr 10

This is the way.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Apr 10

FIRE community is the most underrated corner of personal finance.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Apr 10

Have you considered the tax implications of this approach?

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Apr 10

Counterpoint: what happens if rates stay elevated longer?

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Apr 10

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Apr 10

The compounding at year 20+ is when it gets really wild.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Apr 10

This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Apr 10

Fees really do compound in the wrong direction.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Apr 11

Counterpoint: what happens if rates stay elevated longer?

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Apr 11

Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Apr 11

What brokerage are you using for this?

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Apr 11

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Apr 11

What brokerage are you using for this?

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Apr 11

This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Apr 11

Appreciate you sharing the L's too. Most people only post wins.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Apr 11

I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Apr 11

How does this compare to just buying VTI and forgetting about it?

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Apr 11

The psychology of money matters as much as the math.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Apr 11

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Apr 11

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Apr 11

What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Apr 11

I ran the same numbers. You're on the right track.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Apr 11

Done similar analysis. Your numbers check out.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Apr 11

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Apr 11

Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Apr 12

The exit strategy is what most people don't think about.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Apr 12

Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Apr 12

How did this perform during the 2022 drawdown?

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Apr 12

Mind sharing your full allocation?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Apr 12

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Apr 12

Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Apr 12

What brokerage are you using for this?

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