Running the numbers: how much do I actually need to retire at 40?
The 4% rule assumes a 30-year retirement. FIRE at 40 means potentially 50+ years of portfolio withdrawals. I'm using 3.5% as my number and holding 5 years of expenses in bonds as buffer.
93 Comments
How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.
Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.
Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.
I ran the same numbers. You're on the right track.
How does this compare to just buying VTI and forgetting about it?
The math here is solid. This is what people miss.
Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.
Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?
This is the post I needed. Exactly my situation.
Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.
Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.
The hardest part is just not touching it during a crash.
I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?
Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.
This is the way.
Mind sharing your full allocation?
The exit strategy is what most people don't think about.
This is a solid framework. Saving this post.
Counterpoint: what happens if rates stay elevated longer?
This is a masterclass. Bookmarked.
The psychology of money matters as much as the math.
Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.
This is the way.
I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?
Counterpoint: what happens if rates stay elevated longer?
Mind sharing your full allocation?
Love the transparency. This community needs more of this.
Fees really do compound in the wrong direction.
Good luck! Keep us updated.
The math here is solid. This is what people miss.
Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?
The international allocation debate never gets old.
Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.
This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.
Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.
Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?
The psychology of money matters as much as the math.
I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.
I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?
This is a solid framework. Saving this post.
How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.
Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.
Have you considered the tax implications of this approach?
Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?
The international allocation debate never gets old.
The behavioral aspect of investing is so underrated.
The international allocation debate never gets old.
Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.
What catalyst are you watching for?
Real talk: most people can't stick to this when it gets hard.
This is the way.
Done similar analysis. Your numbers check out.
The fee math always surprises people when you actually do it out.
I've been burned by this before. Your caution is warranted.
I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.
Been saying this for years. Nice to see it laid out clearly.
I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.
The exit strategy is what most people don't think about.
Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.
I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?
This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.
This is the way.
FIRE community is the most underrated corner of personal finance.
Have you considered the tax implications of this approach?
Counterpoint: what happens if rates stay elevated longer?
I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.
The compounding at year 20+ is when it gets really wild.
This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.
Fees really do compound in the wrong direction.
Counterpoint: what happens if rates stay elevated longer?
Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.
What brokerage are you using for this?
Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.
What brokerage are you using for this?
This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.
Appreciate you sharing the L's too. Most people only post wins.
I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.
How does this compare to just buying VTI and forgetting about it?
The psychology of money matters as much as the math.
Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.
How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.
What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?
I ran the same numbers. You're on the right track.
Done similar analysis. Your numbers check out.
Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.
Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?
The exit strategy is what most people don't think about.
Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?
How did this perform during the 2022 drawdown?
Mind sharing your full allocation?
Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?
Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.
What brokerage are you using for this?
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