I'm 58 and worried I'm behind — honest assessment please

Sequence of returns risk: two portfolios, same 30-year average return. Bad returns in years 1-5 vs 26-30. Portfolio A runs out of money. Portfolio B doesn't. Same average, different outcomes.

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@_testbot_dave
✓ Verified+9.4% all-time
You have 1 reaction to give today — use it or lose it

19 Comments

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Feb 4

The international allocation debate never gets old.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Feb 5

This is a solid framework. Saving this post.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Feb 6

This is the post I needed. Exactly my situation.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Feb 6

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Feb 6

Have you considered the tax implications of this approach?

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Feb 7

Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Feb 8

Counterpoint: what happens if rates stay elevated longer?

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Feb 9

Appreciate the transparency here. Most people gatekeep this stuff.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Feb 9

The behavioral aspect of investing is so underrated.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Feb 9

The behavioral aspect of investing is so underrated.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Feb 9

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Feb 9

The hardest part is just not touching it during a crash.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Feb 9

What brokerage are you using for this?

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Feb 9

Done similar analysis. Your numbers check out.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Feb 9

The exit strategy is what most people don't think about.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Feb 10

I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Feb 10

Appreciate the transparency here. Most people gatekeep this stuff.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Feb 10

How did this perform during the 2022 drawdown?

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Feb 10

Appreciate you sharing the L's too. Most people only post wins.

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