Analysis📰News & Macro$XLEMar 29

Tariffs and portfolio positioning — my current thinking

Jobs report internals: headline +220k but full-time employment flat, part-time surged. Average hours worked declining. Underlying labor market softer than headline suggests.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3% all-time
You have 1 reaction to give today — use it or lose it

15 Comments

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Mar 29

Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 30

I ran the same numbers. You're on the right track.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Mar 30

The compounding at year 20+ is when it gets really wild.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Mar 30

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Mar 31

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Mar 31

This is a masterclass. Bookmarked.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Mar 31

What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Mar 31

Appreciate you sharing the L's too. Most people only post wins.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Apr 1

This is a solid framework. Saving this post.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Apr 2

The psychology of money matters as much as the math.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Apr 2

The psychology of money matters as much as the math.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Apr 3

This is either genius or the most expensive lesson of your life.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Apr 4

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Apr 4

This is essentially what a financial advisor charges $5k to tell you.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Apr 5

How does this compare to just buying VTI and forgetting about it?

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