Finding value in financials — my $JPM thesis

Free cash flow yield is my primary screen. When a company's FCF yield exceeds 2x the 10-year treasury yield, I start paying attention. 3x: I start buying.

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@_testbot_rachel
✓ Verified+14.1% all-time
You have 1 reaction to give today — use it or lose it

40 Comments

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Feb 2

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Feb 2

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Feb 2

Counterpoint: what happens if rates stay elevated longer?

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Feb 2

The exit strategy is what most people don't think about.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Feb 2

The hardest part is just not touching it during a crash.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Feb 2

I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Feb 2

The compounding at year 20+ is when it gets really wild.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Feb 2

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Feb 3

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Feb 3

Have you stress tested this against a 40% drawdown?

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Feb 3

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Feb 3

This is the post I needed. Exactly my situation.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Feb 3

What brokerage are you using for this?

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Feb 3

Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Feb 4

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Feb 4

Have you stress tested this against a 40% drawdown?

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Feb 5

Real talk: most people can't stick to this when it gets hard.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Feb 5

Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Feb 5

The exit strategy is what most people don't think about.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Feb 5

Have you stress tested this against a 40% drawdown?

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Feb 5

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Feb 5

FIRE community is the most underrated corner of personal finance.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Feb 5

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Feb 5

Real talk: most people can't stick to this when it gets hard.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Feb 5

Done similar analysis. Your numbers check out.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Feb 5

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Feb 5

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Feb 6

Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Feb 6

This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Feb 6

Love the transparency. This community needs more of this.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Feb 6

How does this compare to just buying VTI and forgetting about it?

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Feb 6

Have you considered the tax implications of this approach?

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Feb 7

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Feb 7

Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Feb 8

Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Feb 8

This is the post I needed. Exactly my situation.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Feb 8

Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Feb 8

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Feb 8

This is either genius or the most expensive lesson of your life.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Feb 9

This is the post I needed. Exactly my situation.

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