BTC to $200k by end of year — bear with me here

ETH thesis: ultrasound money + smart contract dominance. Post-merge issuance is negative. EIP-1559 burns fees. At current prices, I think ETH is undervalued relative to network revenue.

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@_testbot_quinn
✓ Verified+31.0% all-time
You have 1 reaction to give today — use it or lose it

55 Comments

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Jan 5

FIRE community is the most underrated corner of personal finance.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Jan 5

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Jan 5

The international allocation debate never gets old.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Jan 5

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Jan 5

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Jan 6

The hardest part is just not touching it during a crash.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Jan 6

Real talk: most people can't stick to this when it gets hard.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Jan 6

FIRE community is the most underrated corner of personal finance.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Jan 6

What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Jan 6

Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Jan 6

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Jan 6

This is exactly what I needed to read today.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Jan 7

This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Jan 7

Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Jan 7

The compounding at year 20+ is when it gets really wild.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Jan 7

The hardest part is just not touching it during a crash.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Jan 7

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Jan 7

I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Jan 7

The hardest part is just not touching it during a crash.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Jan 7

I ran the same numbers. You're on the right track.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Jan 7

What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Jan 7

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Jan 7

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Jan 7

This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Jan 8

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Jan 8

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Jan 8

What's your thoughts on the downside risk here?

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Jan 9

Real talk: most people can't stick to this when it gets hard.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Jan 9

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Jan 9

What's your thoughts on the downside risk here?

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Jan 9

The behavioral aspect of investing is so underrated.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Jan 9

I ran the same numbers. You're on the right track.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Jan 9

How did this perform during the 2022 drawdown?

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Jan 9

Mind sharing your full allocation?

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Jan 10

Appreciate the transparency here. Most people gatekeep this stuff.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Jan 10

Have you stress tested this against a 40% drawdown?

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Jan 10

Good luck! Keep us updated.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Jan 10

What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Jan 10

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Jan 10

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Jan 10

The psychology of money matters as much as the math.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Jan 10

Love the transparency. This community needs more of this.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Jan 10

Love the transparency. This community needs more of this.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Jan 10

I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Jan 10

This is the way.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Jan 11

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Jan 11

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Jan 11

What catalyst are you watching for?

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Jan 11

This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Jan 11

The hardest part is just not touching it during a crash.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Jan 11

I've been burned by this before. Your caution is warranted.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Jan 11

The behavioral aspect of investing is so underrated.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Jan 11

The international allocation debate never gets old.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Jan 11

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Jan 12

Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.

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