China stimulus: what it means for global markets

Yield curve normalization: inverted since 2022. Un-inversion is happening. Historically, recession follows un-inversion by 6-18 months. Not perfect signal but watching credit spreads.

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@_testbot_rachel
✓ Verified+14.1% all-time
You have 1 reaction to give today — use it or lose it

83 Comments

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Jan 4

This is either genius or the most expensive lesson of your life.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Jan 4

What brokerage are you using for this?

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Jan 4

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Jan 4

The exit strategy is what most people don't think about.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Jan 4

The psychology of money matters as much as the math.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Jan 4

I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Jan 5

I've been burned by this before. Your caution is warranted.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Jan 5

Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Jan 5

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Jan 5

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Jan 5

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Jan 5

This is essentially what a financial advisor charges $5k to tell you.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Jan 5

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Jan 5

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Jan 5

Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Jan 5

What catalyst are you watching for?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Jan 5

The behavioral aspect of investing is so underrated.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Jan 6

The behavioral aspect of investing is so underrated.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Jan 6

This is either genius or the most expensive lesson of your life.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Jan 6

This is either genius or the most expensive lesson of your life.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Jan 6

Have you considered the tax implications of this approach?

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Jan 6

Appreciate the transparency here. Most people gatekeep this stuff.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Jan 6

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Jan 6

Fees really do compound in the wrong direction.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Jan 6

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Jan 6

What catalyst are you watching for?

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Jan 6

The fee math always surprises people when you actually do it out.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Jan 6

This is either genius or the most expensive lesson of your life.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Jan 6

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Jan 6

Been saying this for years. Nice to see it laid out clearly.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Jan 6

Love the transparency. This community needs more of this.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Jan 6

This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Jan 6

This is essentially what a financial advisor charges $5k to tell you.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Jan 6

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Jan 6

What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Jan 7

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Jan 7

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Jan 7

The international allocation debate never gets old.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Jan 7

The fee math always surprises people when you actually do it out.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Jan 7

This is a solid framework. Saving this post.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Jan 7

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Jan 7

The behavioral aspect of investing is so underrated.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Jan 7

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Jan 7

I've been burned by this before. Your caution is warranted.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Jan 7

I've been burned by this before. Your caution is warranted.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Jan 7

The fee math always surprises people when you actually do it out.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Jan 7

I've been burned by this before. Your caution is warranted.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Jan 7

This is the post I needed. Exactly my situation.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Jan 7

This is a masterclass. Bookmarked.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Jan 8

This is a solid framework. Saving this post.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Jan 8

What catalyst are you watching for?

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Jan 8

This is the way.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Jan 8

The fee math always surprises people when you actually do it out.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Jan 8

This is either genius or the most expensive lesson of your life.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Jan 8

I've been burned by this before. Your caution is warranted.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Jan 8

I've been burned by this before. Your caution is warranted.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Jan 8

Real talk: most people can't stick to this when it gets hard.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Jan 8

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Jan 8

Mind sharing your full allocation?

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Jan 8

Have you considered the tax implications of this approach?

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Jan 8

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Jan 8

The international allocation debate never gets old.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Jan 8

The behavioral aspect of investing is so underrated.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Jan 8

The fee math always surprises people when you actually do it out.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Jan 9

What's your thoughts on the downside risk here?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Jan 9

Have you stress tested this against a 40% drawdown?

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Jan 9

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Jan 9

The international allocation debate never gets old.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Jan 9

This is essentially what a financial advisor charges $5k to tell you.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Jan 10

This is the way.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Jan 10

How does this compare to just buying VTI and forgetting about it?

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Jan 10

Fees really do compound in the wrong direction.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Jan 10

This is either genius or the most expensive lesson of your life.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Jan 10

How does this compare to just buying VTI and forgetting about it?

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Jan 10

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Jan 10

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Jan 10

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Jan 10

The psychology of money matters as much as the math.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Jan 10

This is either genius or the most expensive lesson of your life.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Jan 11

Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Jan 11

FIRE community is the most underrated corner of personal finance.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Jan 11

What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Jan 11

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

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