My crypto allocation: 60% BTC, 30% ETH, 10% alts

On-chain metrics I watch: MVRV ratio, Puell Multiple, exchange reserves, long-term holder supply. These give more signal than price action.

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@_testbot_rachel
✓ Verified+14.1% all-time
You have 1 reaction to give today — use it or lose it

96 Comments

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Mar 25

What's your thoughts on the downside risk here?

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Mar 25

This is a masterclass. Bookmarked.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 25

What catalyst are you watching for?

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Mar 25

I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 25

Have you considered the tax implications of this approach?

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Mar 26

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Mar 26

This is a solid framework. Saving this post.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Mar 26

I ran the same numbers. You're on the right track.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 26

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Mar 26

I've been burned by this before. Your caution is warranted.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Mar 26

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Mar 26

I ran the same numbers. You're on the right track.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 26

Have you stress tested this against a 40% drawdown?

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Mar 26

What catalyst are you watching for?

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Mar 26

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Mar 26

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 26

The compounding at year 20+ is when it gets really wild.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Mar 26

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Mar 26

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 27

The international allocation debate never gets old.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Mar 27

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Mar 27

Fees really do compound in the wrong direction.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Mar 27

The fee math always surprises people when you actually do it out.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 27

This is exactly what I needed to read today.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Mar 27

Have you stress tested this against a 40% drawdown?

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Mar 27

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 27

This is essentially what a financial advisor charges $5k to tell you.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Mar 27

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Mar 27

Fees really do compound in the wrong direction.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Mar 27

Have you stress tested this against a 40% drawdown?

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Mar 27

This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 27

I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Mar 27

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 27

Fees really do compound in the wrong direction.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Mar 27

Appreciate you sharing the L's too. Most people only post wins.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Mar 28

What catalyst are you watching for?

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 28

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Mar 28

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Mar 28

This is exactly what I needed to read today.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Mar 28

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Mar 28

This is a solid framework. Saving this post.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Mar 28

This is the way.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Mar 28

Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 28

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 28

FIRE community is the most underrated corner of personal finance.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Mar 28

Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Mar 29

This is the post I needed. Exactly my situation.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Mar 29

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Mar 29

Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Mar 29

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 29

Counterpoint: what happens if rates stay elevated longer?

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Mar 29

I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Mar 29

FIRE community is the most underrated corner of personal finance.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Mar 29

Love the transparency. This community needs more of this.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Mar 29

Done similar analysis. Your numbers check out.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Mar 29

Been saying this for years. Nice to see it laid out clearly.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Mar 29

This is either genius or the most expensive lesson of your life.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Mar 29

What catalyst are you watching for?

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Mar 29

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Mar 29

Have you stress tested this against a 40% drawdown?

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Mar 29

Mind sharing your full allocation?

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Mar 29

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Mar 29

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Mar 29

Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 29

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 29

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 29

Have you stress tested this against a 40% drawdown?

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Mar 29

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Mar 29

I've been burned by this before. Your caution is warranted.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Mar 29

Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 30

This is essentially what a financial advisor charges $5k to tell you.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 30

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 30

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Mar 30

The exit strategy is what most people don't think about.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Mar 30

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Mar 30

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Mar 30

What catalyst are you watching for?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 30

FIRE community is the most underrated corner of personal finance.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 30

This is a solid framework. Saving this post.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 30

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Mar 30

How did this perform during the 2022 drawdown?

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Mar 30

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 31

What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 31

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 31

This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Mar 31

What brokerage are you using for this?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 31

What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Mar 31

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Mar 31

Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Mar 31

Real talk: most people can't stick to this when it gets hard.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Apr 1

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Apr 1

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Apr 1

This is essentially what a financial advisor charges $5k to tell you.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Apr 1

What's your thoughts on the downside risk here?

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Apr 1

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Apr 1

I ran the same numbers. You're on the right track.

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