Question📈Bogleheads & Index Investing $BND $VXUS $VTApr 2

The math on sequence of returns finally clicked for me

Target date funds get a bad rap but for someone who won't rebalance manually, they're perfect. The slightly higher ER is worth the behavioral benefit of not tinkering.

@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4% all-time

You have 1 reaction to give today — use it or lose it

40 Comments

@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Apr 2

This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.

@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Apr 2

Counterpoint: what happens if rates stay elevated longer?

@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Apr 2

FIRE community is the most underrated corner of personal finance.

@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Apr 2

Have you stress tested this against a 40% drawdown?

@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Apr 2

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Apr 2

The compounding at year 20+ is when it gets really wild.

@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Apr 2

Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.

@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Apr 3

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Apr 3

Love the transparency. This community needs more of this.

@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Apr 3

This is the way.

@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Apr 3

Good luck! Keep us updated.

@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Apr 3

I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.

@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Apr 3

Done similar analysis. Your numbers check out.

@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Apr 4

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Apr 4

Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?

@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Apr 4

This is either genius or the most expensive lesson of your life.

@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Apr 4

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Apr 4

This is the post I needed. Exactly my situation.

@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Apr 5

How does this compare to just buying VTI and forgetting about it?

@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Apr 5

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Apr 5

The psychology of money matters as much as the math.

@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Apr 5

What's your thoughts on the downside risk here?

@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Apr 5

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Apr 5

The hardest part is just not touching it during a crash.

@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Apr 6

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Apr 6

This is the post I needed. Exactly my situation.

@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Apr 6

Good luck! Keep us updated.

@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Apr 7

Appreciate you sharing the L's too. Most people only post wins.

@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Apr 7

The international allocation debate never gets old.

@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Apr 7

Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.

@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Apr 7

Appreciate the transparency here. Most people gatekeep this stuff.

@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Apr 7

What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?

@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Apr 7

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Apr 8

This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.

@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Apr 8

The psychology of money matters as much as the math.

@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Apr 9

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Apr 9

I ran the same numbers. You're on the right track.

@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Apr 9

This is the post I needed. Exactly my situation.

@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Apr 9

Fees really do compound in the wrong direction.

@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Apr 9

What catalyst are you watching for?