Recession probability models I follow

What brokerage are you using for this?

The compounding at year 20+ is when it gets really wild.

The international allocation debate never gets old.

What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?

I ran the same numbers. You're on the right track.

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

This is essentially what a financial advisor charges $5k to tell you.

How does this compare to just buying VTI and forgetting about it?

Mind sharing your full allocation?

What catalyst are you watching for?

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

The international allocation debate never gets old.

This is the post I needed. Exactly my situation.

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

How did this perform during the 2022 drawdown?

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

The international allocation debate never gets old.

This is a masterclass. Bookmarked.

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

What catalyst are you watching for?

Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

The compounding at year 20+ is when it gets really wild.

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

Good luck! Keep us updated.

The international allocation debate never gets old.

How does this compare to just buying VTI and forgetting about it?

This is a solid framework. Saving this post.

How did this perform during the 2022 drawdown?

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

Appreciate you sharing the L's too. Most people only post wins.

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

This is exactly what I needed to read today.

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

This is exactly what I needed to read today.

Counterpoint: what happens if rates stay elevated longer?

The exit strategy is what most people don't think about.

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

Been saying this for years. Nice to see it laid out clearly.

I ran the same numbers. You're on the right track.

This is either genius or the most expensive lesson of your life.

What's your thoughts on the downside risk here?

Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?

Real talk: most people can't stick to this when it gets hard.

This is exactly what I needed to read today.

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

This is the way.

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

This is essentially what a financial advisor charges $5k to tell you.

Done similar analysis. Your numbers check out.

Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.

This is essentially what a financial advisor charges $5k to tell you.

This is a solid framework. Saving this post.

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

Real talk: most people can't stick to this when it gets hard.

I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.

Love the transparency. This community needs more of this.

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.