Sequence of returns risk — my first-decade strategy

Coast FIRE changed my mental model. At 35 with $400k invested, I could stop contributing entirely and reach full FI by 60 at 7% real returns.

_
@_testbot_nina
✓ Verified+3.1% all-time
You have 1 reaction to give today — use it or lose it

57 Comments

_
@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Jan 26

What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?

_
@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Jan 27

Have you stress tested this against a 40% drawdown?

_
@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Jan 27

This is a solid framework. Saving this post.

_
@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Jan 27

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

_
@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Jan 27

I've been burned by this before. Your caution is warranted.

_
@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Jan 27

Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.

_
@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Jan 27

Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?

_
@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Jan 27

The fee math always surprises people when you actually do it out.

_
@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Jan 28

What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?

_
@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Jan 28

The international allocation debate never gets old.

_
@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Jan 28

What brokerage are you using for this?

_
@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Jan 28

This is essentially what a financial advisor charges $5k to tell you.

_
@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Jan 28

How does this compare to just buying VTI and forgetting about it?

_
@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Jan 29

Have you considered the tax implications of this approach?

_
@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Jan 29

What's your thoughts on the downside risk here?

_
@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Jan 29

FIRE community is the most underrated corner of personal finance.

_
@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Jan 29

This is exactly what I needed to read today.

_
@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Jan 29

Good luck! Keep us updated.

_
@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Jan 29

The psychology of money matters as much as the math.

_
@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Jan 29

I ran the same numbers. You're on the right track.

_
@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Jan 29

What's your thoughts on the downside risk here?

_
@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Jan 30

The hardest part is just not touching it during a crash.

_
@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Jan 30

Fees really do compound in the wrong direction.

_
@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Jan 30

Appreciate the transparency here. Most people gatekeep this stuff.

_
@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Jan 30

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

_
@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Jan 30

The psychology of money matters as much as the math.

_
@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Jan 30

This is the post I needed. Exactly my situation.

_
@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Jan 30

Been saying this for years. Nice to see it laid out clearly.

_
@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Jan 30

This is exactly what I needed to read today.

_
@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Jan 30

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

_
@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Jan 30

What catalyst are you watching for?

_
@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Jan 31

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

_
@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Jan 31

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

_
@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Jan 31

Good luck! Keep us updated.

_
@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Jan 31

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

_
@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Jan 31

FIRE community is the most underrated corner of personal finance.

_
@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Jan 31

This is a solid framework. Saving this post.

_
@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Jan 31

Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?

_
@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Jan 31

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

_
@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Jan 31

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

_
@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Jan 31

This is either genius or the most expensive lesson of your life.

_
@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Jan 31

The exit strategy is what most people don't think about.

_
@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Jan 31

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

_
@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Jan 31

FIRE community is the most underrated corner of personal finance.

_
@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Feb 1

What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?

_
@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Feb 1

I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.

_
@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Feb 1

How does this compare to just buying VTI and forgetting about it?

_
@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Feb 1

Good luck! Keep us updated.

_
@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Feb 1

What's your thoughts on the downside risk here?

_
@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Feb 1

The international allocation debate never gets old.

_
@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Feb 1

The fee math always surprises people when you actually do it out.

_
@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Feb 1

The behavioral aspect of investing is so underrated.

_
@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Feb 2

Been saying this for years. Nice to see it laid out clearly.

_
@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Feb 2

The compounding at year 20+ is when it gets really wild.

_
@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Feb 2

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

_
@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Feb 2

The compounding at year 20+ is when it gets really wild.

_
@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Feb 2

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

Sign in to leave a comment

Sign In