Geopolitical risk premium in EM — is it priced in?

Currency risk is real but bidirectional. A weaker dollar helps your international returns. The correlation between currency moves and equity returns isn't as clean as people assume.

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@_testbot_ivan
✓ Verified+12.8% all-time
You have 1 reaction to give today — use it or lose it

99 Comments

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Mar 11

Counterpoint: what happens if rates stay elevated longer?

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 11

This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 11

Counterpoint: what happens if rates stay elevated longer?

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Mar 11

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 11

Mind sharing your full allocation?

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Mar 12

Appreciate the transparency here. Most people gatekeep this stuff.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Mar 12

Counterpoint: what happens if rates stay elevated longer?

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 12

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Mar 12

This is the way.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 12

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 12

Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Mar 12

I ran the same numbers. You're on the right track.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Mar 12

Counterpoint: what happens if rates stay elevated longer?

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Mar 12

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 12

The international allocation debate never gets old.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 13

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Mar 13

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 13

Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Mar 13

What brokerage are you using for this?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 13

I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Mar 13

The behavioral aspect of investing is so underrated.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Mar 13

Appreciate the transparency here. Most people gatekeep this stuff.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Mar 13

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Mar 13

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Mar 13

Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Mar 14

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Mar 14

This is essentially what a financial advisor charges $5k to tell you.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 14

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Mar 14

How did this perform during the 2022 drawdown?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 14

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Mar 14

Done similar analysis. Your numbers check out.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Mar 14

I ran the same numbers. You're on the right track.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Mar 14

What brokerage are you using for this?

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Mar 14

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Mar 14

The psychology of money matters as much as the math.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 14

Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Mar 14

Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Mar 15

Fees really do compound in the wrong direction.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 15

This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Mar 15

I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Mar 15

What's your thoughts on the downside risk here?

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Mar 15

Good luck! Keep us updated.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Mar 15

This is the way.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 15

What catalyst are you watching for?

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Mar 15

Good luck! Keep us updated.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Mar 15

What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Mar 15

Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 15

What catalyst are you watching for?

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Mar 15

This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 15

Love the transparency. This community needs more of this.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Mar 15

What's your thoughts on the downside risk here?

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Mar 15

Have you considered the tax implications of this approach?

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 15

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Mar 15

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Mar 16

How does this compare to just buying VTI and forgetting about it?

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Mar 16

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Mar 16

Done similar analysis. Your numbers check out.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Mar 16

This is the post I needed. Exactly my situation.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Mar 16

I ran the same numbers. You're on the right track.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 16

This is exactly what I needed to read today.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 16

What brokerage are you using for this?

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Mar 16

FIRE community is the most underrated corner of personal finance.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Mar 16

Good luck! Keep us updated.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Mar 16

Appreciate you sharing the L's too. Most people only post wins.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Mar 16

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 16

What brokerage are you using for this?

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Mar 16

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Mar 16

Love the transparency. This community needs more of this.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 17

The compounding at year 20+ is when it gets really wild.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Mar 17

The psychology of money matters as much as the math.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Mar 17

This is essentially what a financial advisor charges $5k to tell you.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Mar 17

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Mar 17

The compounding at year 20+ is when it gets really wild.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Mar 17

This is a masterclass. Bookmarked.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Mar 17

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Mar 17

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Mar 17

I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 17

Real talk: most people can't stick to this when it gets hard.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Mar 17

This is the way.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Mar 17

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Mar 17

This is the post I needed. Exactly my situation.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 17

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Mar 17

What brokerage are you using for this?

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 17

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Mar 17

How does this compare to just buying VTI and forgetting about it?

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Mar 17

Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Mar 17

Been saying this for years. Nice to see it laid out clearly.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 17

The international allocation debate never gets old.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Mar 17

Have you stress tested this against a 40% drawdown?

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Mar 17

What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Mar 17

Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Mar 18

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Mar 18

Real talk: most people can't stick to this when it gets hard.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Mar 18

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Mar 18

I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Mar 18

Have you stress tested this against a 40% drawdown?

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Mar 18

This is either genius or the most expensive lesson of your life.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Mar 18

This is essentially what a financial advisor charges $5k to tell you.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Mar 18

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

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