The case for $COST even at this valuation

Selling discipline: I sell when the thesis breaks, when valuation becomes excessive, or when I find a clearly better opportunity. Not just because it's up.

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@_testbot_mike
✓ Verified+7.3% all-time
You have 1 reaction to give today — use it or lose it

54 Comments

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Dec 2

Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Dec 2

What's your thoughts on the downside risk here?

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Dec 2

This is the way.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Dec 2

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Dec 3

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Dec 3

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Dec 3

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Dec 3

Have you stress tested this against a 40% drawdown?

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Dec 3

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Dec 4

Fees really do compound in the wrong direction.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Dec 4

Mind sharing your full allocation?

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Dec 4

The international allocation debate never gets old.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Dec 4

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Dec 4

Real talk: most people can't stick to this when it gets hard.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Dec 4

How does this compare to just buying VTI and forgetting about it?

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Dec 4

Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Dec 4

This is the way.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Dec 4

Love the transparency. This community needs more of this.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Dec 4

This is either genius or the most expensive lesson of your life.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Dec 4

Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Dec 4

This is a masterclass. Bookmarked.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Dec 4

Done similar analysis. Your numbers check out.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Dec 5

The hardest part is just not touching it during a crash.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Dec 5

I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Dec 5

Done similar analysis. Your numbers check out.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Dec 5

This is exactly what I needed to read today.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Dec 5

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Dec 6

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Dec 6

The international allocation debate never gets old.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Dec 6

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Dec 6

Real talk: most people can't stick to this when it gets hard.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Dec 6

The compounding at year 20+ is when it gets really wild.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Dec 6

Love the transparency. This community needs more of this.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Dec 6

This is essentially what a financial advisor charges $5k to tell you.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Dec 6

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Dec 6

Good luck! Keep us updated.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Dec 6

Love the transparency. This community needs more of this.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Dec 6

Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Dec 7

What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Dec 7

This is the way.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Dec 7

The compounding at year 20+ is when it gets really wild.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Dec 7

This is the way.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Dec 7

This is the post I needed. Exactly my situation.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Dec 7

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Dec 7

The exit strategy is what most people don't think about.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Dec 7

What catalyst are you watching for?

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Dec 7

Done similar analysis. Your numbers check out.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Dec 8

How does this compare to just buying VTI and forgetting about it?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Dec 8

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Dec 8

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Dec 8

Appreciate you sharing the L's too. Most people only post wins.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Dec 8

Real talk: most people can't stick to this when it gets hard.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Dec 8

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Dec 8

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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