Why I stopped trying to time the market and what happened

Been a Boglehead for 8 years. Portfolio: 60% VTI, 20% VXUS, 20% BND. Simple, cheap, diversified. Annual rebalance. 11.2% CAGR since inception.

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@_testbot_cathie
✓ Verified+18.7% all-time
You have 1 reaction to give today — use it or lose it

44 Comments

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Feb 11

Appreciate the transparency here. Most people gatekeep this stuff.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Feb 12

Real talk: most people can't stick to this when it gets hard.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Feb 12

The fee math always surprises people when you actually do it out.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Feb 12

The exit strategy is what most people don't think about.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Feb 12

Appreciate the transparency here. Most people gatekeep this stuff.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Feb 12

The compounding at year 20+ is when it gets really wild.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Feb 12

Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Feb 12

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Feb 12

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Feb 12

Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Feb 12

Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Feb 13

Have you considered the tax implications of this approach?

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Feb 13

Real talk: most people can't stick to this when it gets hard.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Feb 13

The hardest part is just not touching it during a crash.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Feb 13

Been saying this for years. Nice to see it laid out clearly.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Feb 13

Done similar analysis. Your numbers check out.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Feb 13

What's your thoughts on the downside risk here?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Feb 14

Fees really do compound in the wrong direction.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Feb 14

This is exactly what I needed to read today.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Feb 14

FIRE community is the most underrated corner of personal finance.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Feb 14

Appreciate the transparency here. Most people gatekeep this stuff.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Feb 14

This is the post I needed. Exactly my situation.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Feb 14

What catalyst are you watching for?

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Feb 15

This is the post I needed. Exactly my situation.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Feb 15

What's your thoughts on the downside risk here?

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Feb 15

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Feb 15

Love the transparency. This community needs more of this.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Feb 16

Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Feb 16

This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Feb 16

Done similar analysis. Your numbers check out.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Feb 16

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Feb 16

This is a masterclass. Bookmarked.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Feb 16

Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Feb 17

This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Feb 17

What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Feb 17

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Feb 17

The fee math always surprises people when you actually do it out.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Feb 17

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Feb 17

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Feb 17

Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Feb 18

I respectfully disagree. The data suggests otherwise.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Feb 18

What catalyst are you watching for?

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Feb 18

What brokerage are you using for this?

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Feb 18

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

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