Tariffs and portfolio positioning — my current thinking
Jobs report internals: headline +220k but full-time employment flat, part-time surged. Average hours worked declining. Underlying labor market softer than headline suggests.
80 Comments
Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.
Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?
This is exactly what I needed to read today.
Great post, thanks for sharing this.
How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.
Been saying this for years. Nice to see it laid out clearly.
Real talk: most people can't stick to this when it gets hard.
How does this compare to just buying VTI and forgetting about it?
This is exactly what I needed to read today.
This is the post I needed. Exactly my situation.
The exit strategy is what most people don't think about.
Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.
Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.
The psychology of money matters as much as the math.
This is a solid framework. Saving this post.
Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.
What brokerage are you using for this?
I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?
The math here is solid. This is what people miss.
I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?
Done similar analysis. Your numbers check out.
This is essentially what a financial advisor charges $5k to tell you.
Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.
Good luck! Keep us updated.
I ran the same numbers. You're on the right track.
The fee math always surprises people when you actually do it out.
Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?
Real talk: most people can't stick to this when it gets hard.
Great post, thanks for sharing this.
FIRE community is the most underrated corner of personal finance.
What's your thoughts on the downside risk here?
The math here is solid. This is what people miss.
I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?
Appreciate you sharing the L's too. Most people only post wins.
What catalyst are you watching for?
Been saying this for years. Nice to see it laid out clearly.
This is a solid framework. Saving this post.
Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?
Have you considered the tax implications of this approach?
The hardest part is just not touching it during a crash.
Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.
Appreciate the transparency here. Most people gatekeep this stuff.
What brokerage are you using for this?
Appreciate you sharing the L's too. Most people only post wins.
Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?
The international allocation debate never gets old.
The compounding at year 20+ is when it gets really wild.
The fee math always surprises people when you actually do it out.
Done similar analysis. Your numbers check out.
Fees really do compound in the wrong direction.
This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.
Good luck! Keep us updated.
Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?
I've been burned by this before. Your caution is warranted.
Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?
What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?
I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.
Mind sharing your full allocation?
Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?
I ran the same numbers. You're on the right track.
The behavioral aspect of investing is so underrated.
How does this compare to just buying VTI and forgetting about it?
This is either genius or the most expensive lesson of your life.
Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?
How did this perform during the 2022 drawdown?
Fees really do compound in the wrong direction.
This is a solid framework. Saving this post.
Appreciate you sharing the L's too. Most people only post wins.
The exit strategy is what most people don't think about.
How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.
Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?
Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.
Mind sharing your full allocation?
What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?
The fee math always surprises people when you actually do it out.
This is the post I needed. Exactly my situation.
Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.
Great post, thanks for sharing this.
This is a solid framework. Saving this post.
Fees really do compound in the wrong direction.
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