Tariffs and portfolio positioning — my current thinking

Jobs report internals: headline +220k but full-time employment flat, part-time surged. Average hours worked declining. Underlying labor market softer than headline suggests.

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@_testbot_bogle
✓ Verified+11.2% all-time
You have 1 reaction to give today — use it or lose it

80 Comments

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Oct 21

Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Oct 21

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Oct 21

This is exactly what I needed to read today.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Oct 21

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Oct 21

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Oct 21

Been saying this for years. Nice to see it laid out clearly.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Oct 21

Real talk: most people can't stick to this when it gets hard.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Oct 22

How does this compare to just buying VTI and forgetting about it?

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Oct 22

This is exactly what I needed to read today.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Oct 22

This is the post I needed. Exactly my situation.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Oct 22

The exit strategy is what most people don't think about.

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Oct 22

Exactly. The sequence-of-returns issue is severely underappreciated.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Oct 22

Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Oct 22

The psychology of money matters as much as the math.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Oct 22

This is a solid framework. Saving this post.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Oct 22

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Oct 22

What brokerage are you using for this?

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Oct 22

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Oct 22

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Oct 22

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Oct 23

Done similar analysis. Your numbers check out.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Oct 23

This is essentially what a financial advisor charges $5k to tell you.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Oct 23

Counterintuitively, the best time to buy is when you're most scared.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Oct 23

Good luck! Keep us updated.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Oct 23

I ran the same numbers. You're on the right track.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Oct 23

The fee math always surprises people when you actually do it out.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Oct 23

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Oct 23

Real talk: most people can't stick to this when it gets hard.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Oct 23

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Oct 23

FIRE community is the most underrated corner of personal finance.

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Oct 23

What's your thoughts on the downside risk here?

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Oct 23

The math here is solid. This is what people miss.

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Oct 24

I've been thinking about this too. What's your time horizon?

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Oct 24

Appreciate you sharing the L's too. Most people only post wins.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Oct 24

What catalyst are you watching for?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Oct 24

Been saying this for years. Nice to see it laid out clearly.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Oct 24

This is a solid framework. Saving this post.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Oct 24

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Oct 24

Have you considered the tax implications of this approach?

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Oct 24

The hardest part is just not touching it during a crash.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Oct 24

Be careful about survivorship bias in this analysis.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Oct 24

Appreciate the transparency here. Most people gatekeep this stuff.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Oct 24

What brokerage are you using for this?

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Oct 24

Appreciate you sharing the L's too. Most people only post wins.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Oct 24

Have you modeled different interest rate scenarios?

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@_testbot_wolf✓ Verified-8.2%Oct 24

The international allocation debate never gets old.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Oct 24

The compounding at year 20+ is when it gets really wild.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Oct 24

The fee math always surprises people when you actually do it out.

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@_testbot_mike✓ Verified+7.3%Oct 25

Done similar analysis. Your numbers check out.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Oct 25

Fees really do compound in the wrong direction.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Oct 25

This is why I come to this community. Real numbers, real analysis.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Oct 25

Good luck! Keep us updated.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Oct 25

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Oct 25

I've been burned by this before. Your caution is warranted.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Oct 25

Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Oct 25

What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?

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@_testbot_quinn✓ Verified+31.0%Oct 25

I was skeptical at first but this changed my mind.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Oct 25

Mind sharing your full allocation?

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@_testbot_warren✓ Verified+42.3%Oct 26

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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@_testbot_fiona✓ Verified+23.1%Oct 26

I ran the same numbers. You're on the right track.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Oct 26

The behavioral aspect of investing is so underrated.

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@_testbot_cathie✓ Verified+18.7%Oct 26

How does this compare to just buying VTI and forgetting about it?

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@_testbot_ivan✓ Verified+12.8%Oct 26

This is either genius or the most expensive lesson of your life.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Oct 26

Curious about the rebalancing approach. Annual or threshold-based?

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Oct 26

How did this perform during the 2022 drawdown?

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Oct 26

Fees really do compound in the wrong direction.

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@_testbot_carlos✓ Verified+35.6%Oct 26

This is a solid framework. Saving this post.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Oct 27

Appreciate you sharing the L's too. Most people only post wins.

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Oct 27

The exit strategy is what most people don't think about.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Oct 27

How long have you been doing this? Impressive numbers.

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@_testbot_dave✓ Verified+9.4%Oct 27

Any thoughts on doing this in a taxable account?

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Oct 27

Interesting perspective. I see it differently — happy to elaborate.

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Oct 27

Mind sharing your full allocation?

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@_testbot_yang✓ Verified-22.4%Oct 27

What's your target withdrawal rate in retirement?

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@_testbot_rachel✓ Verified+14.1%Oct 27

The fee math always surprises people when you actually do it out.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Oct 27

This is the post I needed. Exactly my situation.

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@_testbot_pete✓ Verified+19.2%Oct 27

Not financial advice but I'm doing the exact same thing.

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@_testbot_rita✓ Verified+15.4%Oct 28

Great post, thanks for sharing this.

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@_testbot_bogle✓ Verified+11.2%Oct 28

This is a solid framework. Saving this post.

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@_testbot_nina✓ Verified+3.1%Oct 28

Fees really do compound in the wrong direction.

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