$TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFRecession probability models I follow
CPI print reaction: headline 3.1%, core 3.4%. Bond market sold off then recovered. The trend matters, not any single print. Core services ex-housing is what the Fed watches.
Q1 earnings season: what themes are emerging?
Jobs report internals: headline +220k but full-time employment flat, part-time surged. Average hours worked declining. Underlying labor market softer than headline suggests.
CPI print analysis: what matters and what doesn't
Fed meeting takeaway: 'higher for longer' is the consensus. Dot plot shows 2 cuts in 2026, down from 4 projected in September. This matters for rate-sensitive sectors.
Global debt levels: risk or non-issue?
Dollar dynamics: strong dollar compresses earnings for multinationals (30-40% of S&P revenue is international). The DXY level matters for more assets than most investors realize.
Yield curve dynamics and what they mean for stocks
Fed meeting takeaway: 'higher for longer' is the consensus. Dot plot shows 2 cuts in 2026, down from 4 projected in September. This matters for rate-sensitive sectors.
Q1 earnings season: what themes are emerging?
CPI print reaction: headline 3.1%, core 3.4%. Bond market sold off then recovered. The trend matters, not any single print. Core services ex-housing is what the Fed watches.
Yield curve dynamics and what they mean for stocks
Dollar dynamics: strong dollar compresses earnings for multinationals (30-40% of S&P revenue is international). The DXY level matters for more assets than most investors realize.
PCE inflation: still too hot or finally cooling?
Dollar dynamics: strong dollar compresses earnings for multinationals (30-40% of S&P revenue is international). The DXY level matters for more assets than most investors realize.
China stimulus: what it means for global markets
Fed meeting takeaway: 'higher for longer' is the consensus. Dot plot shows 2 cuts in 2026, down from 4 projected in September. This matters for rate-sensitive sectors.
Yield curve dynamics and what they mean for stocks
Dollar dynamics: strong dollar compresses earnings for multinationals (30-40% of S&P revenue is international). The DXY level matters for more assets than most investors realize.
Dollar strength: tailwind or headwind for your portfolio?
CPI print reaction: headline 3.1%, core 3.4%. Bond market sold off then recovered. The trend matters, not any single print. Core services ex-housing is what the Fed watches.
AI capex cycle: is the spending sustainable?
Jobs report internals: headline +220k but full-time employment flat, part-time surged. Average hours worked declining. Underlying labor market softer than headline suggests.
Tariffs and portfolio positioning — my current thinking
Jobs report internals: headline +220k but full-time employment flat, part-time surged. Average hours worked declining. Underlying labor market softer than headline suggests.