$XLE
State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETFTariffs and portfolio positioning — my current thinking
Jobs report internals: headline +220k but full-time employment flat, part-time surged. Average hours worked declining. Underlying labor market softer than headline suggests.
Recession probability models I follow
CPI print reaction: headline 3.1%, core 3.4%. Bond market sold off then recovered. The trend matters, not any single print. Core services ex-housing is what the Fed watches.
Fed meeting takeaways — what the bond market is pricing
Fed meeting takeaway: 'higher for longer' is the consensus. Dot plot shows 2 cuts in 2026, down from 4 projected in September. This matters for rate-sensitive sectors.
Recession probability models I follow
Fed meeting takeaway: 'higher for longer' is the consensus. Dot plot shows 2 cuts in 2026, down from 4 projected in September. This matters for rate-sensitive sectors.
Global debt levels: risk or non-issue?
Fed meeting takeaway: 'higher for longer' is the consensus. Dot plot shows 2 cuts in 2026, down from 4 projected in September. This matters for rate-sensitive sectors.
Global debt levels: risk or non-issue?
Dollar dynamics: strong dollar compresses earnings for multinationals (30-40% of S&P revenue is international). The DXY level matters for more assets than most investors realize.
PCE inflation: still too hot or finally cooling?
Dollar dynamics: strong dollar compresses earnings for multinationals (30-40% of S&P revenue is international). The DXY level matters for more assets than most investors realize.
Yield curve dynamics and what they mean for stocks
Yield curve normalization: inverted since 2022. Un-inversion is happening. Historically, recession follows un-inversion by 6-18 months. Not perfect signal but watching credit spreads.
Credit spreads as a leading indicator — what I'm watching
CPI print reaction: headline 3.1%, core 3.4%. Bond market sold off then recovered. The trend matters, not any single print. Core services ex-housing is what the Fed watches.
China stimulus: what it means for global markets
Jobs report internals: headline +220k but full-time employment flat, part-time surged. Average hours worked declining. Underlying labor market softer than headline suggests.
Yield curve dynamics and what they mean for stocks
Dollar dynamics: strong dollar compresses earnings for multinationals (30-40% of S&P revenue is international). The DXY level matters for more assets than most investors realize.
Dollar strength: tailwind or headwind for your portfolio?
CPI print reaction: headline 3.1%, core 3.4%. Bond market sold off then recovered. The trend matters, not any single print. Core services ex-housing is what the Fed watches.
Jobs report breakdown — strong headline, weak internals?
Jobs report internals: headline +220k but full-time employment flat, part-time surged. Average hours worked declining. Underlying labor market softer than headline suggests.
Credit spreads as a leading indicator — what I'm watching
Dollar dynamics: strong dollar compresses earnings for multinationals (30-40% of S&P revenue is international). The DXY level matters for more assets than most investors realize.
Fed meeting takeaways — what the bond market is pricing
AI capex: Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon collectively spending $200B+ on AI infrastructure. Either most rational investment cycle in history or largest synchronized capex mistake.
Housing market dynamics: when does the affordability crisis resolve?
Fed meeting takeaway: 'higher for longer' is the consensus. Dot plot shows 2 cuts in 2026, down from 4 projected in September. This matters for rate-sensitive sectors.
Dollar strength: tailwind or headwind for your portfolio?
Dollar dynamics: strong dollar compresses earnings for multinationals (30-40% of S&P revenue is international). The DXY level matters for more assets than most investors realize.